How has the diamond price changed over the past 10 years? Asset quality compared to gold and future outlook
2026 latest version
Diamond market price trends10 yearsVerified with data
Diamond market price trends10 yearsVerified with data
compared to goldasset valueIs there one?
"Are diamonds an asset?" - Not many people can give a clear yes or no to this question. There is no international published price like gold, nor are charts updated in real time like stocks.That's why so many people reserve judgment.It has become.
In this article,Rapaport price and IDEX Diamond Index, which are wholesale diamond price indicatorsBased on data such as, we will organize how the market moved over the 10 years from 2015 to 2025. Furthermore, we will compare it with gold and platinum, and go into the boundaries between conditions that make it a good asset and cases where it doesn't.
💎
Diamond 1ct D FL
Approximately 1.5 million yen
🥇
Gold 1g (2026)
Approximately over 15,000 yen
📈
10 years rise and fall
Diamond ≒ flat
📊
10 years rise and fall
Gold ≒ + approx. 2.5 times
``Should I buy it after all?'' ``What kind of stone will I buy without regretting it?'' - We aim to provide explanations that will help you make a clear decision after reading the article.
When choosing a diamond, carefully compare loose diamonds
Diamonds vary in quality and price depending on carat, color, clarity, cut, etc. At Selby, you can search for loose diamonds that match your needs while comparing grades and prices.
Compare by grade
You can choose loosely
Check details
1Diamond market price trends over the past 10 years (2015-2025)
Diamonds do not have a "uniform international price" like gold. Therefore, the following two indicators are mainly referred to in the industry:
💡 Representative price index
- Rapaport Price List: Weekly publication. Wholesale benchmark price among diamond traders.
- IDEX Diamond Index: Index based on actual trading conditions. Easy to see market temperature.
The following isRound brilliant 1ct / G-H / VS classThis is a simplified image of the changes in US$ base. When denominated in yen, there is an additional effect of exchange rates.
Diamond market price (1ct G-H VS) vs gold price (USD) indexing trend (2015 = 100)
There are three main points that can be read from the chart.
📌 Key points of the 10-year trend
- 2015-2019:Diamond prices have declined moderately on a US dollar basis. The slowdown in the Chinese economy and De Beers' price adjustments have had an impact.
- 2020-2022 first half: Rapid rise due to coronavirus pandemic → revenge consumption. In the first half of 2022, it will reach a level of +20-25% compared to 2015.
- Late 2022-2025: A decline due to interest rate hikes, concerns about economic recession, the spread of used diamonds, and Trump's tariffs, returning to almost the 2015 level (the impact of Lab Grown is said to be minor).
Gold, on the other hand, isApproximately 2-2.5 timesis rising. When denominated in yen, the effect of yen depreciation is added, and the difference in perceived returns is even more pronounced. This contrasting movement is the basis for the opinion that ``Isn't the asset value of diamonds relatively low?''
| year | Diamond 1ct G VS1 (USD standard) |
YoY comparison | gold 1oz (USD standard) |
YoY comparison |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $5,800 | — | $1,160 | — |
| 2016 | $5,300 | ▼9% | $1,250 | ▲8% |
| 2017 | $5,100 | ▼4% | $1,290 | ▲3% |
| 2018 | $5,000 | ▼2% | $1,270 | ▼2% |
| 2019 | $4,800 | ▼4% | $1,510 | ▲19% |
| 2020 | $4,400 | ▼8% | $1,800 | ▲19% |
| 2021 | $6,300 | ▲43% | $1,740 | ▼3% |
| 2022 | $7,200 | ▲14% | $1,760 | ▲1% |
| 2023 | $5,700 | ▼21% | $1,970 | ▲12% |
| 2024 | $5,300 | ▼7% | $2,350 | ▲19% |
| 2025 | $5,500 | ▲4% | $2,500 | ▲6% |
*The above values are approximate values based on various industry reports and indicators. The actual price varies depending on the grade, shape, and appraisal agency of the individual stone.
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25 factors that have had a major impact on diamond prices over the past 10 years
The background to the price trends over the past 10 years isDemand/Supply/Technology/Geopolitics/ForexThese five factors are intricately intertwined. Here, we will organize each in chronological order.
1
Changes in demand in China and India
The slowdown in the Chinese economy since 2015 has slowed demand and pushed down prices. On the other hand, in 2021, demand for weddings in India and consumption recovery in the United States will skyrocket. Unbalanced demand is the main cause of price volatility.
2
Corona pandemic and “revenge consumption”
In the first half of 2020, supply decreased sharply due to the suspension of mine operations, but from the second half to 2022, prices skyrocketed due to revenge consumption in developed countries. The backlash led to a sharp decline from the second half of 2022 to 2023.
3
Impact of Trump tariffs
Mutual tariffs will be increased by the Trump administration starting in 2024. In particular, import and export of diamonds from India to the United States was delayed, with the tariff rate increasing to 50%. Decrease in the number of completed transactions → This is a factor in the decline in prices.
4
Russia sanctions and changes in supply structure
Sanctions against Russia's Alrosa, the world's largest supplier of rough diamonds (from 2022), mean a reduction in supply. However, it has been pointed out that indirect distribution continues, so the impact on prices was limited.
5
Weak yen, strong dollar and domestic prices in Japan
Diamonds are traded in US$, so if the yen weakens, the selling price in Japan will rise. The rapid depreciation of the yen from 2022 onwards will be due to a decline in USD terms.“In yen terms, it appears to be flat to slightly increasing.”It created an illusion.
⚠️ Points to note
"Increasing domestic retail prices does not necessarily mean that diamond asset values are increasing." It is necessary to look at the foreign exchange and retail margin additions separately. It can also be said that the increase in the composition ratio of used diamonds has had a large impact. Additionally, natural diamonds and lab-grown diamonds tend not to be seen as a factor in the decline, as their customer bases are different.
When choosing a diamond, carefully compare loose diamonds
Diamonds vary in quality and price depending on carat, color, clarity, cut, etc. At Selby, you can search for loose diamonds that match your needs while comparing grades and prices.
Compare by grade
You can choose loosely
Check details
33 reasons why the diamond market price is “difficult to understand”
In the case of gold, the TV news will report that ``Today's gold price is 1g = ○○ yen''. However, with Diamond, such experiences are rare. Why?
Impact of foreign exchange (weak yen) and inflation
The international trading currency for diamonds is the US dollar. For example, even if a 1ct stone that cost $5,800 in 2015 drops to $5,500 in 2025, in the same period1 dollar = 120 yen → 150 yenIf the yen depreciated in“It looks like the price has gone up.”A phenomenon occurs.
USD-denominated vs. Yen-denominated: Even the same stone looks different
🇺🇸
USD denominated price
$5,800 → $5,500
▼5.2%
🇯🇵
Yen price
¥696,000 → ¥825,000
▲18.5%
*This is a price fluctuation due to exchange rates, not an increase in the value of the diamond itself.
The impact of inflation is similar. When prices rise, the retail price of jewelry also rises, but this is not due to an increase in the asset value of diamonds, but simply a decrease in the purchasing power of currency.
Fluctuations in producing countries/supply and geopolitical risks
The main producing countries for rough diamonds areRussia, Botswana, Democratic Republic of Congo, Canada, Australiaetc. If mine closures, political instability, or sanctions occur in these countries, supply will suddenly change.
2020
Major mines have suspended operations due to the coronavirus pandemic. Supply is temporarily significantly reduced.
2022
Sanctions against Russia's Alrosa company. Affects approximately 30% of global supply. However, there is also the existence of detour transactions.
From 2023
Contract review negotiations with De Beers in Botswana. The rise of resource nationalism in African producing countries.
2025
Since the closure of the Argyle mine in Australia (2020), the rarity of rare colors such as pink diamond has further increased.
Fluctuations on the supply side are characterized by being difficult to predict, and it is difficult to predict them quantitatively in advance, as with stocks and gold.
Impact of synthetic diamonds (lab-grown) on natural prices
In 2018, De Beers launched the lab-grown brand “Lightbox”, which was symbolic. The price of synthetic diamonds continues to plummet,As of 2025, less than 1/10 of naturalThere are also cases of
💎 Price difference between natural vs. synthetic (1ct G VS1 guideline)
- natural diamond: Approximately $5,000-6,000 (see Rapaport)
- lab grown: Approximately $300-800 (plunging trend continues)
As long as the price of synthetic diamonds continues to fall,Smaller and lower grade natural diamonds are more susceptible to price competition.It's in the structure.
However, lab-grown products have ethical issues in the production process (environmental pollution, etc.) and seem to be less well-received by the market than natural products. There is also data that shows that many Gen Z buyers prefer natural products, and the industry seems to recognize them as industrial products in many cases. Stealth marketing using AI is also noticeable, and it can be said that there is a disconnection from reality.
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4Difference between gold and platinum
When considering diamonds as a real asset, comparisons with gold and platinum cannot be avoided. In the table below,Main evaluation axis as an assetI'll put together a list.
diamond
Asset property: conditional
Gold
Asset quality: high
platinum
Asset quality: moderate
| Comparison items | 💎 diamond | 🥇 Gold | ⬜ Platinum |
|---|---|---|---|
| Advertised price | None (inter-vendor indicators only) ✕ |
Yes (in seconds in international markets) ◎ |
Yes (in seconds in international markets) ◎ |
| liquidity | Low (sold to limited buyers) △ |
very high ◎ |
expensive ○ |
| buy/sell spread | Big (30-60% difference between retail and purchase) ✕ |
Small (about a few percent) ◎ |
Small (about a few percent) ◎ |
| 10 year return (USD denominated) |
Approximately ▲5%~±0% flat |
Approximately +100~150% Significant increase |
Approximately ▲10~+20% unstable |
| storage cost | Almost zero (small/no deterioration) ◎ |
Safe deposit box and insurance required △ |
Safe deposit box and insurance required △ |
| portability | Extremely expensive (fits in your pocket) ◎ |
Heavy (1kg = approximately 15 million yen) △ |
heavy △ |
| anonymity | Expensive (no registration required) ○ |
Identity verification required at the time of transaction △ |
Identity verification required at the time of transaction △ |
| tax system | Gain on sale is capital gain △ |
Gain on sale is capital gain △ |
Gain on sale is capital gain △ |
Diamond has an overwhelming value in terms of value density per volume. A 1ct diamond has a diameter of approximately 6.5mm and a weight of 0.2g. There is no other asset worth millions of yen that you can take with you in an emergency or move overseas.
However,The biggest weaknesses are “large buy/sell spread” and “low liquidity”It is. It is not uncommon for a stone bought at a jewelry store for 1 million yen to be worth only 400,000 to 600,000 yen if you try to sell it on the same day. This is the biggest reason why it is said that it is not an asset.
Image of loss rate when selling
* Estimated reduction rate at the time of sale compared to the purchase price. Diamonds vary greatly depending on purchase channel, grade, and whether or not there is a certificate of authenticity.
So when considering diamonds as an asset,“Can we expect a return that will outweigh this loss?”Or“Are the psychological and physical benefits of owning the property acceptable for the spread?”——You need to judge these two points calmly.
When choosing a diamond, carefully compare loose diamonds
Diamonds vary in quality and price depending on carat, color, clarity, cut, etc. At Selby, you can search for loose diamonds that match your needs while comparing grades and prices.
Compare by grade
You can choose loosely
Check details
5Advantages and precautions of owning diamonds as an asset
Based on the analysis so far,Diamonds are not an investment product for everyone, but they have the potential to be an asset if certain conditions are met.You can organize it as follows.
✅ Advantages (Aspects that make you an “ant” as an asset)
- Best in class value per volume. Portability◎
- Does not deteriorate. Extremely low physical storage risk
- Storage costs are almost zero (no safe deposit box required)
- High anonymity with no registration or notification required
- Large, high-quality stones have a structure that continues to increase in rarity.
- The ultimate store of value during inflation and currency crises
⚠️ Points to note (cases that are likely to be “none”)
- Very large buy/sell spreads (especially when making retail purchases)
- There are no published prices, making it difficult to determine the appropriate price.
- Almost no short-term return expected
- Limited sales channels (difficult to convert into cash quickly)
- The value changes depending on the quality and grading of the certificate.
Conditions for a diamond that “does not lose its value as an asset”
Based on the above advantages and disadvantages, if you want to own a diamond as an asset, it is important to choose a stone that meets the following conditions.
💎 Asset Diamond 7 Checklist
-
Carat: 1ct or more, ideally 2ct or more
The larger the grain, the more effective it is to differentiate it from lab-grown, and the higher the scarcity premium. -
Color: D~F color (colorless)
G color and below have a significant premium drop from an asset perspective. -
Clarity: VVS2 or higher
For VS1 and below, there is likely to be variation in objective evaluation of quality. -
Cut: Excellent (triple excellent recommended)
The essence of brilliance. Cut grade is also given top priority when resale. -
Appraisal agency: GIA certificate included
Most trusted internationally. AGL and CGL are also effective in Japan, but when considering overseas resale, GIA is the only choice. -
Purchase channel: Purchase through a route close to wholesale price
Retail margins can be 50-100% at department stores and brand stores. Utilize the trade route and bare stone sales. -
Fluorescence: None~Faint
Fluorescent products such as Strong Blue are often discounted in the market.
📌 The “purchase price” at the time of purchase determines everything.
The asset value of diamonds is more than “what you buy”"How much should I buy it for?"It depends on. Even if you buy the same 1ct D VVS1 3EX stone at a branded jewelry store for 2 million yen, the profit and loss at resale will be completely different if you buy it as a bare stone for 1 million yen.Keep the purchase price as close as possible to the Rapaport reference priceThis can be said to be the most important point in ensuring asset quality.
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6Outlook for 2026 and beyond | Is now the time to buy? Wait and see?
In conclusion,"Whether the overall diamond market will rise" and "whether your stone will rise in price" are two different things.It is. Please refer to the following three scenarios when making your decision.
📈
bullish scenario
Supply of large, high-quality natural diamonds continues to decline due to mine closures and new development stagnation. Scarcity premium will rise in the medium to long term.
➡️
neutral scenario
Natural diamonds have remained stable as a "luxury item/collector's item" as they are becoming increasingly separated from lab-grown diamonds.
📉
bearish scenario
With the change of generations, the "preference for natural diamonds" has faded, and synthetic diamonds have completely become mainstream. The price of small and medium-sized natural grains has dropped significantly.
Market environment in 2026
If we summarize the market environment in 2026, the following factors will coexist.
🟢 Factors supporting prices
- Supply constraints continue at major mines (Argyle closure, Russian sanctions)
- Luxury consumer markets in India and the Middle East are strong
- The rarity of fancy colors (pink, blue, etc.) is reevaluated
- De Beers strategic supply control
🔴 Factors pushing down prices
- Global economic slowdown risk (prolonged interest rate hikes)
- Increased circulation of used diamonds (inheritance/asset consolidation)
- Diamond trading price fluctuations due to tariff rates
Judgment frame for “when to buy”
Based on the above, the following decision frame is valid.
🎯 People who can make a move to buy now
- There is a route where you can obtain high quality natural stones of 2ct or more at conditions close to wholesale prices.
- Assumed long-term holding of 10 years or more
- It is positioned as an allocation of 5% or less of the entire portfolio.
- Rather than being a substitute for gold, they value its ``characteristics different from gold (portability and anonymity)''
- Since it can be enjoyed as jewelry, it is a surplus of funds that can be tolerated even if the price drops in the worst case.
🛑 A person who is wise to wait and see
- Expecting returns in the short term (1-3 years)
- Purchase channel is only retail store (purchases are nearly twice the wholesale price)
- I am trying to purchase a stone less than 1ct as an "asset"
- Not examining channel timing at time of sale
2026 Diamond Market Overall Judgment
A little wait-and-see ── Depends on the conditions.
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Finally
Diamonds are not general-purpose investment products like gold, where anyone who buys them can become an asset.
However,``Appropriate grade'' ``Appropriate purchase price'' ``Preparation for long-term ownership''If these three conditions are met, it has the potential to have strengths that other real assets do not have.
In particular, as the amount of large, high-quality natural diamonds newly mined on the earth continues to decrease,
Scarcity as a “finite natural asset”has the potential to be reevaluated in the medium to long term.
The important thing isRather than buying based on the ``atmosphere'' or ``expecting price increases,'' we believe that decisions should be made after understanding the data and conditions.。
We hope that this article will serve as a basis for making that decision.
💎
When choosing a diamond, carefully compare loose diamonds
Diamonds vary in quality and price depending on carat, color, clarity, cut, etc. At Selby, you can search for loose diamonds that match your needs while comparing grades and prices.
Compare by grade
You can choose loosely
Check details